Hospitals and Ventilators

Dateline 30 April 2020.
In early April 2020, there was much discussion about insufficient hospital beds and ventilators available to prevent catastrophe.
Except for a time in New York City and some European countries, this has not transpired. Governments are claiming that the expected shortage was due to lockdowns and other measures. Still, many are now questioning the projected estimates of the degree of illness caused by the CO-19 virus. The link has remained on the site, although it hopefully is now redundant.

The shortage of ventilators has been solved in many countries, and the US had applied its huge manufacturing capacity to producing ventilators. Most of these will never be used, even if needed due to the lack of trained staff. Expect garage or scrap metal sales of unused, outdated ventilators in a few years!

Total Staffed Beds in all U.S. Hospitals is 924,107, but more may be needed

10 April 2020. The problem with hospital beds and ventilators is that although a country or state may have enough, they may not be in the location where they are needed.

New York state has 53,000 hospital beds, but officials project they will need 140,000 at the height of the crisis at the end of April.

(As at 21 April 2020 it appears that this estimate was grossly overestimated, as have most of the future predictions, and many hospitals worldwide are currently operating at gross under capacity.)

One advantage of a lockdown is less travelling, so fewer road accidents reducing the demand for hospital treatment plus reduced workplace accidents, thus freeing up some beds for COVID-19 patients.

More than 38,000 people die every year or 104 per day in crashes on US roadways. An additional 4.4 million or 12,054 per day are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.

According to figures issued by NYC health on 5 April 2020, of those tested positive for COVID-19 about 9% of the 18 to 44 age group required hospitalization, rising to 48% of those aged 75+.
21% of tested New York City COVID-19 patients land up in a hospital.
No records of the % needing ventilators have been found.

More hospital beds will be needed worldwide urgently.
This could be a solution!

• The US Army Corp of Engineers is in a race to build temporary hospitals nationwide as coronavirus spreads. Source https://www.foxnews.com/us/army-corps-engineers-temporary-hospitals-coronavirus
 
• However, most countries do not have the resources to build sufficient of these facilities for everyone.
• Governments or private enterprise could guaranteed hospital treatment to the wealthier if the donor/investors who are prepared to pay their government or private enterprise to build them a temporary hospital bed.
• These beds can be built in an existing hospital parking garage, nearby hall or exhibition centre, allied to the existing hospital.
  
• The donor/investor would "own" the temporary hospital room and be entitled to use that room should they be sick enough to require it during the COVID-19 emergency, but in the meantime donate it so that it can be used by other patients.
  
• If the room is being used at the time that the donor/investor needs it, then the patient would be moved to the next available nearby bed, or the donor/investor will be guaranteed the next bed in that or an equal facility.
• This way, the hospital system gets the beds it needs, built by a private or public entity, paid for by donor/investors. The donor/investor or bed owner is guaranteed a bed and treatment if needed while in the meanwhile, many other patients receive treatment.
• Once the emergency is over, and the bed is disassembled the donor/investor loses their right, and the remaining equipment goes to the hospital.

More resuscitators and ventilators are be needed worldwide urgently.
Solutions are on the way

• There are several consortium's racing to build resuscitators and a Google search under "Resuscitators design competitions" will bring up various groups such as https://www.respiratorchallenge.org/#winner.
 
• Israel has announced the AmboVent, and Medtronic has released its designs

  https://hackernoon.com/the-open-source-ventilator-game-has-changed-ambovent-and-medtronic-covid-19-ventilators-open-source-s77l3y4s.

• A South African group trying to build ventilator have after an initial refusal has obtained the designs for the Penlon Nuffield 200 which does not require electronics since it is a 40-year old design.
  Source https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/covid-19-uk-company-makes-about-turn-and-agrees-to-help-sa-with-ventilators-20200404

President Trump announced on TV on 10 April that the USA has ramped up ventilator production so much that they can supply them to other countries.

This rush to build far more ventilators than needed will probably be a waste of funds since the real shortage will be trained nurses to operate the ventilators.
Additionally, it appears that patients who require ventilator intubation suffer such lung damage from the virus and the procedure that few ever get out of bed again.